How Will the Ukraine War End? 10 Experts Weigh In
"Diplomacy is listening to what the other guy needs," the late former Secretary of StateColin Powellonce said, but will talks aimed at ending Russia's invasion of Ukraine give either country's leader what he wants?
Ukrainian presidentVolodymyr Zelenskyhas insisted a tete-a-tete withVladimir Putinis the only way to end hostilities that began on February 24, but his passionate plea contrasts with the dry Kremlin position of last week that such a meetingwas "conceptually possible."
基辅和莫斯科官员这个星期的气氛更加积极。俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫星期三说，双方“接近达成协议”，而泽伦斯基说，俄罗斯的要求“更加现实”。
However, Putin gave a firebrand address on Tuesday, lacking in the language of compromise, in which he said Russians "will always be able to distinguish true patriots from scum and traitors."
The Kremlin has also taken umbrage at the rather undiplomatic description by PresidentJoe Bidenof Putin as a "war criminal," which will make it tricky for his administration to work with Moscow if a peace deal is struck.
《新闻周刊》询问了一些专家，他们是否认为本周取得了真正的外交进展，以及他们认为战争将如何结束。
Most were doubtful that the present negotiations would see an end to the war, while others thought thatZelensky's admission that Kyiv would not join NATO是莫斯科的一个关键要求，但不太可能改变局势。
Rose Gottemoeller, Ex-Deputy Secretary General of NATO
"I am glad that they seem to be moving forward, and doing it quietly—megaphone diplomacy doesn't work. I was glad to hear Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov say... that the negotiators just need a quiet place to work."
"I don't know what President Zelensky's position on the territories will be, that will be up to him and his government. What I've been saying is that it's important to remember that no matter what happens under duress, we do not need to acknowledge it.
"For the 70 years of the USSR's existence, we, the United States, never acknowledged that the Baltic States, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, were part of the USSR. They are now, all three, members ofNATOand theEU."
Michal Baranowski, Warsaw Office Director, German Marshall Fund
"I'm very skeptical that the current round of talks will end Russia's war in Ukraine. This war has never been about Ukraine's NATO membership for Vladimir Putin. I'm concerned that from Russia's perspective the talks are meant to buy time for the Russian military to regroup."
"The talks are also a way for Russia to give the West a false hope for cease-fire and lower western motivation for further sanctions and military assistance for Ukraine."
“我们还需要很长一段时间才能看到这一切可能如何结束。不幸的是，我担心情况会在好转之前变得更糟。最终，西方和乌克兰需要阻止俄罗斯取得胜利。
"This is unfortunately hard to define, but having a Ukraine that is forced to accept neutrality at the barrel of Russian gun, would indeed mean Russian victory."
David Rivera, Assistant Professor of Government, Hamilton College, Clinton (NY)
“泽伦斯基总统仅仅承诺乌克兰不会寻求加入北约，并不足以诱使俄罗斯结束入侵。
“普京已经明确表示……他在乌克兰问题上的雄心远远超出了乌克兰的正式中立地位和加入北约的可能性。
"It was the possibility of Ukrainian membership in theEuropean Union, not NATO, that led to his first major act of military aggression against Ukraine in 2014."
"In his speech on Tuesday... Putin made clear that his determination to bring Ukraine fully into Moscow's strategic, economic, and cultural orbit remains great.
"Only defeat on the battlefield or Putin's removal from power will result in the withdrawal of Russian troops from occupied Ukrainian territory."
Andrew Latham, International Relations Professor, Macalester College, Saint Paul, (MN)
"Neither side is ready just yet for serious negotiations. For that to happen, given that neither is going to simply surrender, both will have to have reached the point of exhaustion at which they believe they can't 'win' and will simply have to settle."
任何协议都需要“乌克兰保持某种形式的中立”，包括既不加入北约(NATO)，也不加入欧盟(EU)，还需要“让普京走出一条岔路，让他个人免受战争罪的审判，让俄罗斯恢复某种表面上的正常状态”。
但泽伦斯基必须小心自己放弃的东西。太多的话，他可能会面临像2014年亚努科维奇那样的反弹，当时亚努科维奇向普京屈服太多。
"Putin too. He can't come out of this without at least appearing to his internal audience that Russia won."
Clifford Brown, Political Science Professor, Union College (NY)
他说:“我对和平谈判的进展表示怀疑。考虑到普京严厉的讲话，我认为他开始接受A计划没有奏效的事实，但他不愿意承认事情超出了他的能力范围。
"If he holds his own and fights Russia to a stalemate, or a partial victory, Zelensky can accept non-NATO membership and some form of 'neutrality,' but he obviously cannot give up his weapons, or ability to accept outside military hardware and intelligence assistance.
“俄罗斯可能最终同意离开，但普京必须拿出一些东西来展示俄罗斯的巨大努力，以及在生命、设备和财富方面的成本。
“领土是普京想要的，但这是症结所在。乌克兰想要回自己的领土，但俄罗斯显然无法通过谈判达成解决方案，让乌克兰的土地比战前更少。”
“我只是认为，在战争本身比现在更清楚地定义谈判地位的结构之前，不会有任何解决办法。”
Douglas Page, Political Science Assistant Professor, Gettysburg College (PA)
"I believe it's too early to tell how diplomatic efforts will play out. Russia's potential defeat in Ukraine may motivate settlement talks and/or further escalations in violence by Putin.
"An agreement regarding NATO membership could help advance a peace settlement, but Putin's aggression increases the likelihood of stalled talks and reneging."
William Muck, Political Science Professor, North Central College, Naperville (IL)
泽伦斯基和拜登都经常谈到这场冲突，称其为世界上争取自由和民主的生死存亡之战。
"Given the gravity of what is at stake in defending democracy in Ukraine, it seems unlikely that Zelensky could then turn around and give up large chunks of his territory.
"The other important factor to an agreement is separating what each side wants versus what they will accept.
"Conditions on the ground are likely to determine who cracks first. Will the relentless Russian bombing break the Ukraine population, or will global economic warfare crack the Russian economy?"
“这个问题的答案可能会决定谁最愿意修改自己在谈判桌上的立场。”
Peter Rutland, Professor of Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies, Wesleyan University (CT)
"Securing a Ukrainian commitment to Swiss or Austrian style neutrality is something that the Kyiv government could accept, and that Russia could declare to be a victory since Ukraine was unwilling to make such a commitment before February 24."
"Ukraine would probably also have to agree not to allow foreign countries to establish military bases on their territory.
"The problem however is in the ancillary conditions. Presumably all Russian troops would withdraw to where they were before February 24.
"In recent days Russia has been insisting that Ukraine legally recognize the annexation of Crimea by Russia and the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics, which Kyiv has been refusing to concede.
"So Russia will have to drop that demand if this peace deal is going to happen. At this stage, I think it is possible that they will be willing to drop that demand, since the war is going so badly for them."
Ian Johnson, Assistant Professor of Military History, University of Notre Dame, South Bend, (IA)
"President Zelensky seemed to be signaling...he would consider a peace agreement on terms that might resemble 'Finlandization.' The term, used to describe Finland's position in the Cold War, meant independence but with limitations on Finland's foreign policy, particularly its ability to act against Soviet interests.
"Such an agreement might require Ukraine to pledge not to join NATO, and perhaps concede degrees of control across Russian-occupied portions of Eastern Ukraine.
“然而，达成这样的协议存在重大障碍，因为它将远远达不到普京宣称的乌克兰‘去纳粹化和非军事化’的目标。
“这对乌克兰来说也是一剂难以下咽的苦果，因为乌克兰迄今的军事表现远好于预期。”
Katie Laatikainen, Professor of Political Science, Adelphi University (NY)
"The discussions at the moment are most certainly focused on a ceasefire rather than a final negotiated conclusion. It is very difficult to negotiate a peace when bullets and missiles continue to fly."
"I think one of the gains that Putin would like to have recognized is the irredentist claims he has over majority Russian areas of Ukraine that are now under the control of the Russian military. But this will be much more difficult than the engineered annexation of Crimea in 2014.
“事实上，俄罗斯的入侵并没有得到讲俄语的乌克兰人的支持，这使得实现这个目标变得更加困难。
"So the contours of a final peace agreement will take a great deal of time, and the substantive elements are difficult to discern, because this conflict has also been cast as a test of the liberal international order."
